Podcast: The Law of Large Numbers
Is there luck in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu? Not really. In a match, there are very few factors outside of your control. For example, you may be able to beat a professional poker player in a single hand, if you are dealt great cards. But you could almost never beat Roger Gracie in a single match, there’s no luck that would give you enough of an advantage.
And yet, there is randomness in BJJ. Your opponents, your weight cut, pre-existing injuries, or even your mental state. All of these things can affect performance, and you’re often not in control of them.
There is also the element of chaos in BJJ. Short matches are marked by kinetic and explosive action. Two grown men, or women, colliding in a tangle of arms and legs, finding themselves in scrambles and unexpected positions. And before they can steer the match back on course, it’s over.
That’s why measuring performance in your career can be difficult. Did you lose because the other guy was better, or were circumstances to blame? Game Theory already has the solution: the law of large numbers. We dive into the theory in this weeks podcast episode.
The High Percentage Podcast is the weekly show where we take a look at real data we collect from matches and read between the lines. We break down the game of Brazilian Jiu-jitsu and submission grappling into its most basic game theory components, so we can make YOU, a killer on the mats.
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